1 WORK WITH THE IMAGE Which regions of the world are growing most? Which are growing least? Which countries stand out in each case? What changes are forecast in these regions by 2075? What will world population be in 2050? The United Nations (UN) forecasts that world population will exceed 9.7 billion (9,700,000,000) by 2050. Although annual population growth is not ver y high , it will reach this figure because the current population is ver y large. This 2 billion (2,000,000,000) increase will be concentrated in a few low and middle-income regions. It is estimated that nine countries will account for over half the demographic growth forecast for 2050. Seven of these countries are in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa . Sub-Saharan Africa is the poorest region in the world and its population is forecast to double by 2050. (9) Countries in these regions have weak political , economic and social systems, making population growth a major challenge. By contrast, between 2010 and 2020 the populations of 27 countries decreased by 1 % or more. The UN forecasts that this list of countries will grow to 55 by 2050. In 26 of these countries, the population will decrease by at least 10 %. Most of these countries are in Europe, the region that has had the lowest demographic growth for years. Immigration will be essential to help increase the birth rate to the generational replacement figure of 2.1 children per woman. 959143_02_p59_crecimiento_natural _pob laci on A T L A N T I C O C E A N P A C I F I C O C E A N I N D I A N O C E A N P A C I F I C O C E A N SOURCE: UN, 2020. 0 1.400 ki lo me t re s Scale , 8. The growth of world population 959143_02_p59_h02_prevision_crecimiento 1950 2020 2050 2000 2075 SOURCE: UN, 2020. Sub-Saharan Africa Central and South Asia East and South East Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Oceania Europe, USA and Canada 3,000 2,500 3,500 In millions of people Year 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 North Africa and West Asia 9. Growth forecast by region 959143_02_p59_leyenda_crecimiento_natural_poblacion From 2 to 3 Natural increase (in %) From 1 to 2 From 0 to 1 Negative More than 3 Define: generational replacement. Explain the differences in demographic growth between the most and least developed countries. What factors determine these differences? K E Y Q U E S T I O N S 33
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